Benjamin Netanyahu faces a threat to his chances of forming a new government due to an agreement among Arab parties
A reduction in Arab representation could increase the likelihood of the far right winning the elections, thereby strengthening Benjamin Netanyahu’s prospects of forming a government to replace the current one.
Four Arab parties in Israel are moving toward unification ahead of the general elections expected in a few months. This step could give them enough political weight to influence the formation of the next government, a development that concerns Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the hard right, which is planning to ban one of these parties.
Contacts and meetings between Arab party leaders have intensified ahead of the elections expected in mid-September or late October. The election represents a major challenge for Netanyahu’s hard-right coalition, especially after three devastating wars involving Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.
Netanyahu has been wanted since 2024 to appear before the International Criminal Court, accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during the war in Gaza since 2023.
The opposition, a mix of right-wing and centrist parties, hopes to prevent Netanyahu from forming a new government, particularly as he is also on trial for corruption.
Estimates suggest that if Arab parties unite, voter turnout among Arab citizens—who make up around 20% of Israel’s population of more than 10 million—would increase. Public opinion polls show that if these parties run separately, they would win only around 10 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.
Four Arab parties run in Israeli elections: the United Arab List, the Arab Movement for Change, the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality, and the National Democratic Assembly. When unified in the Joint List, Arab representation rose to 13 seats in 2019 and 15 in 2020, before the alliance collapsed due to internal disagreements.
On May 21, a poll showed that if elections were held that day, no bloc would reach the 61 seats required to form a government in the Knesset.
According to the poll, the Jewish opposition would win 59 seats, Netanyahu’s bloc 51, and Arab lawmakers 10, highlighting the decisive role of Arab parties in forming the next government.
So far, most Jewish opposition parties have rejected relying on Arab lawmakers to form a government replacing Netanyahu’s, which has been in power since December 2022.
In an effort to increase Arab representation and block the formation of another right-wing government, contacts among Arab party leaders have intensified to overcome divisions and reach unity.
These efforts were further intensified following leaks about internal discussions within Netanyahu’s circle regarding the potential outlawing of the United Arab List (led by Mansour Abbas) and banning its political activities before the elections, according to Channel 13 on Sunday evening.
The channel reported that sources close to Netanyahu are considering legal and security measures to designate the Islamic Movement (southern branch), the political and institutional umbrella of the party, as a banned organization.
These moves are reportedly based on allegations that the movement transferred funds, aid, and donations to Gaza during the war that began on October 8, 2023.
The war has resulted in more than 72,000 Palestinian deaths and over 172,000 injuries, mostly women and children, along with the destruction of about 90% of infrastructure. The United Nations estimates reconstruction costs at around $70 billion.
Despite a ceasefire announced on October 10, 2025, Israel continues to restrict humanitarian aid and carries out daily strikes that have killed 904 Palestinians and injured 2,731, most of them civilians.
Leader of the opposition “Democrats” party, Yair Golan, said that Netanyahu’s potential move against the United Arab List is politically motivated, as he believes his political end is near.
In a post on X on Sunday evening, Golan said: “Netanyahu feels his end is near and that he is about to lose the election.” He added that, in a desperate attempt to hold onto power, Netanyahu is seeking to exclude Ra’am, recalling that he once negotiated with Mansour Abbas to form a government.
He also accused Netanyahu of “peak hypocrisy,” noting that while Netanyahu now labels the party a terrorist organization, he previously appointed Itamar Ben Gvir, who was convicted for supporting a terrorist organization, to a ministerial position.
Golan argued that this constitutes an attack on democracy aimed at stripping Arab citizens of legitimacy and changing the rules of the electoral game.
A decline in Arab voter turnout, and thus in Arab representation in the Knesset, would increase the number of right-wing seats.
Recent polls had predicted the defeat of the far-right “Religious Zionism” party, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.
However, reduced Arab representation could improve its chances of winning, thereby strengthening Netanyahu’s ability to form a new government.
On Sunday evening, three Arab parties announced their readiness to reach an agreement with a fourth party to form a joint electoral list, and the latter later expressed readiness to sign.
The Democratic Front for Peace and Equality, the National Democratic Assembly, and the Arab Movement for Change said in a joint statement that they had held a meeting following a series of recent consultations aimed at rebuilding the Joint List and overcoming remaining obstacles.
They said they had reached agreement on key political issues and emphasized the importance of continued political and parliamentary coordination after the elections. They expressed readiness to sign an agreement with the United Arab List on the basis of a technical joint electoral list.
The initiative aims to increase voter turnout, strengthen Arab representation, and bring down the government and what they described as a “fascist right-wing project,” according to the statement.
The three parties called on the United Arab List to immediately sign the agreement, amid ongoing pressure and threats of banning Arab parties.
They added that they hoped to announce the reformation of the Joint List on the eve of Eid al-Adha, restoring hope among their communities and strengthening unity in the face of growing challenges.
In response, the United Arab List welcomed the three-party agreement, describing it as a step toward success, particularly in preventing wasted Arab votes as occurred in previous elections when the Balad party failed to pass the electoral threshold.
It said it was ready to sign a technical joint list agreement, emphasizing that each party would retain its own platform, freedom, and political discourse without obligation.
Arab Knesset member Ahmed Tibi described the response as “a step in the right direction,” stressing respect for each party’s identity without imposing a unified political line.
On May 20, the Knesset voted in preliminary reading in favor of a bill to dissolve itself, which must still pass three additional readings to become law. Several possible dates have been proposed for the next elections, most notably mid-September or late October, according to Israeli media reports.
