After Trump’s Electoral Setback, Israel Races to Secure Its Arms Deals
Israeli security sources say the defence establishment is “in a state of uncertainty” over continued US support for Israel and talks with Tehran following President Donald Trump’s setback in the midterm elections.
According to Walla, citing sources familiar with the matter, Israel is considering asking the Trump administration to accelerate arms deals and related decisions before the end of the year.
Israeli concerns have intensified following a series of Democratic victories in the Senate and House of Representatives, including in traditional Republican strongholds. They have also been heightened by Trump’s decision to terminate the security assistance agreement under which Israel was expected to receive $3.8 billion annually through 2028.
Against this backdrop, a security source said the Israeli military had been on its highest alert for a week regarding all matters involving Iran. “It remains unclear how political developments in the United States will affect US policy towards the regime in Tehran,” the source said.
The source explained that US–Iranian negotiations currently focus on a single issue: the Strait of Hormuz. This is shaping Trump’s agenda, particularly as oil prices have not fallen. It remains unclear, however, how the negotiations would advance Israeli interests concerning Iran’s nuclear programme and missile development.
Three Scenarios
According to assessments presented to Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, Defence Minister Israel Katz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the defence establishment is considering three main scenarios.
Under the first, negotiations would advance towards an agreement fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz in line with US interests, without clarity over Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes.
The second envisages renewed fighting beginning with a large-scale strike on targets across Iran. It remains unclear whether this would involve cooperation with Israel or an independent US operation in which Washington determines the scope and intensity of the strikes.
The third scenario foresees negotiations continuing without a definitive decision, alongside sustained vigilance in the Middle East. Countries facing threats from Iran would remain on maximum alert, while the arms race for defensive and offensive capabilities would intensify.
The Israeli military fears that Trump’s policy towards Israel could shift unfavourably in response to American public opinion as preparations for the next presidential election gather pace.
Accelerating Procurement and Decisions
In light of these developments, a security source said Israel is considering accelerating procurement and related decisions with the United States during the remaining period through December 30, before Trump’s decision takes effect.
The concern, according to the source, is that Trump’s statement, combined with the impact of the midterm elections and support from members of Congress described as “hostile” to Israel, could lead to further decisions affecting military and Defence Ministry procurement and cooperation.
Citing the same source, Walla also reported that the Prime Minister’s Office and Defence Ministry may already have begun discussions with senior US officials to expedite weapons purchases.
The source said the Israeli government had previously been slow to advance major arms deals and aircraft purchases under its strategic force-building programme. The military and Defence Ministry had warned about tensions between the Finance Ministry, Defence Ministry and Prime Minister’s Office. Those tensions are now escalating amid concerns that the deals may not be approved.
Meanwhile, the Israeli military has not ruled out a surprise Iranian move against the United States and its interests in the Middle East, including Israel. Such action could involve a missile or air attack, or an asymmetric operation carried out by Iran’s regional proxies.
