Terrorism Expands Into West Africa: Security Gaps, Resources and a Growing Threat

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Terrorist groups are moving southward across the African Sahel, exploiting weak governance, local grievances and illicit economies.

West Africa appears to be emerging as the next major focal point for terrorism-related conflict. The region shares direct and porous borders with key Sahel countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso and suffers from a range of internal vulnerabilities that extremist groups have historically exploited.

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The persistent presence of terrorist organizations in the Sahel since 2012 and their recent expansion into Gulf of Guinea states—particularly Togo, Benin, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire since 2021—reflect the increasingly regional nature of the threat facing West Africa.

The security crisis is further aggravated by the growing connection between terrorism and transnational organized crime networks.

According to a paper by expert Carlota Ahrens Teixeira published by the international affairs platform GIS, the inability of civilian governments to contain mounting threats and guarantee security could place greater pressure on state institutions, fuel political instability and open the door to military intervention and coups across West Africa.

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The Security Situation

According to the 2026 Global Terrorism Index, attacks across sub-Saharan Africa almost doubled over the past year, rising from 111 to 221 incidents.

The Sahel has become the global epicenter of terrorism. In 2025, it accounted for more than half of all terrorism-related deaths worldwide, compared with less than 1% in 2007.

Some indicators improved in 2025. Five Sahel countries recorded fewer incidents and fewer civilian deaths than in 2024.

However, this progress should not obscure the broader trend: the overall fatality rate increased, with fewer but deadlier attacks and continued geographical expansion.

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Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, an Al-Qaeda affiliate, has been the main force driving expansion toward Africa’s western coastline, using southern Burkina Faso as a launching point.

From there, its units have infiltrated northern Benin and Togo and, intermittently, Côte d’Ivoire.

The Islamic State Sahel Province is another major actor. It is also working to extend its influence through a growing network of affiliated local armed groups.

Rather than relying primarily on indiscriminate violence against civilians, these groups are increasingly adopting strategies designed to consolidate their presence and control, build local support and establish themselves as de facto governing authorities, according to the paper.

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Benin

The expert cited Benin as an example of terrorism’s expansion.

It is currently the coastal state most exposed to terrorist violence, with the number of attacks rising sharply from five in 2021 to 155 in 2024, while the military sustained record losses.

The country’s geographical position makes it a strategic corridor for terrorist smuggling networks, particularly those operating from Nigeria.

Northern Benin contains the vast W-Arly-Pendjari, or WAP, complex, an area characterized by a limited road network and difficult terrain.

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This environment gives insurgents extensive opportunities to move undetected, significantly complicating military operations and rapid-response efforts.

The country’s security forces also continue to lack sufficient resources to confront an increasingly complex threat landscape.

According to the paper, this weakness stems from years of chronic underinvestment and a longstanding perception of relative stability, which delayed the necessary preparations and development of capabilities.

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Togo

Togo’s security situation has deteriorated significantly since terrorist violence first emerged in 2022, making it the second most affected country in the subregion.

Although the total number of attacks remains relatively limited—possibly reflecting the narrow, 126-kilometer border between Togo and Burkina Faso and the country’s “highly militarized state structure”—the current trajectory is concerning.

Recent incidents point to escalation in both scale and sophistication.

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This trend was illustrated by the July 2024 attack on the Kpinkankandi base, which reportedly involved approximately 100 members of a group identified as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.

The attackers’ reported ability to penetrate a military facility and seize heavy weapons highlights the growing operational capabilities of terrorist groups.

The limited availability of official information adds further uncertainty about the true scale of the threat, according to the paper.

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Ghana

Although Ghana shares a 600-kilometer border with Burkina Faso, it has so far demonstrated considerable resilience against the spread of terrorism.

It has successfully thwarted attempted terrorist attacks thanks to relatively strong and well-equipped security forces.

Nevertheless, its exposure to the regional threat remains significant.

Like many other West African states, Ghana faces a range of socioeconomic and governance challenges that terrorist groups seek to exploit, including communal tensions, public discontent and widespread illicit activity, particularly illegal artisanal gold mining.

The absence of successful attacks should therefore not be interpreted as immunity.

Ghana’s resilience could be tested if terrorist groups expand their regional ambitions or if instability in its northern neighbor, Burkina Faso, increases pressure across the border.

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Nigeria

As a major regional power, Nigeria recorded a concerning increase in terrorism-related deaths, which rose by 46% in 2025.

In Sokoto and Kebbi states in northwestern Nigeria, media reports have increasingly used the name “Lakurawa.”

According to the paper, however, the term is largely a mislabeling of long-established Islamic State operations that exploit chronic instability to sabotage infrastructure, including the Benin-Niger pipeline.

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Mechanisms of Expansion

According to the paper, terrorism’s southward movement should not be viewed as a tactical retreat from military pressure in the Sahel.

Instead, it represents a strategic effort to acquire manpower, resource-rich territory, smuggling routes and remote areas where state authority is weak, while exploiting a combination of geographical, social and economic vulnerabilities.

Geographical proximity and gaps in state authority explain much of this expansion.

The insurgency that began in Mali spread into Niger and Burkina Faso and, more recently, into coastal states such as Togo and Benin. Threats to Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Senegal and Mauritania are also increasing.

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Similarly, terrorist groups in Nigeria operate across borders into Cameroon, Niger and Chad.

Across West Africa, border regions frequently constitute governance and security vacuums where the state’s presence and territorial control are at their weakest.

These conditions give armed groups opportunities to establish safe havens.

Cross-border nature reserves are especially conducive to this dynamic. They include the W-Arly-Pendjari complex, which extends across Benin, Burkina Faso and Niger, and Comoé National Park in Côte d’Ivoire.

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Their vast size, rugged terrain and the difficulty of monitoring them limit the effectiveness of conventional ground and aerial surveillance.

According to the paper, these protected areas provide insurgent groups with space to regroup, establish logistical networks and continue operating beyond the reach of state authorities.

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