Trump caught between pressure to end the Iran war and appeasing Republican hawks
The US president has only a narrow margin for maneuver, as he seeks to balance pushing Iran to make concessions on key issues while offering limited concessions himself that would allow him to portray the outcome as a victory.
US President Donald Trump is facing a dilemma in his efforts to end the war against Iran: he is under pressure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lower gasoline prices in the United States, while at the same time risking a fierce backlash from anti-Iran hawks within the Republican Party if he grants any concessions to Tehran.
The contours of this dilemma became clear during a week of intensive diplomatic efforts. Informed sources spoke of a preliminary agreement that could extend the current ceasefire and ease Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil supplies, while postponing discussions on Tehran’s nuclear programme.
If approved by the US president and Iranian leaders, this temporary agreement would represent the most significant step toward peace since Washington joined Israel in the war against the Islamic Republic on February 28. It could also help ease the surge in energy prices caused by the conflict.
However, it could also anger a key segment of Trump’s political base — influential Republicans calling to “finish the job” by resuming strikes to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons, which was the main justification Trump cited for entering the war.
A few days ago, some of Trump’s hardline anti-Iran allies criticized reports suggesting a possible deal, arguing that it would achieve little beyond the 2015 nuclear agreement negotiated by former President Barack Obama, from which Trump withdrew during his first term.
Prominent Republicans who rarely disagree with Trump, including Senators Lindsey Graham, Roger Wicker, and Ted Cruz, urged the president not to make concessions. Trump, however, denied this and insisted that he was “in no rush” and would accept only a “great” deal.
Caught between demands for a quick solution to rising fuel prices and calls to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the president has very limited room for maneuver. Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East expert at Johns Hopkins University, said: “Trump’s fluctuating rhetoric and sudden policy shifts over the past week suggest that the president is trying to end a large-scale war by any means possible.”
A White House official said: “Negotiations are going well, and the president has made his red lines clear.”
The official, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive internal matters, added: “President Trump will only make a good deal for the American people, one that ensures Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon.”
Leaks reported by media outlets on Thursday regarding the terms of a “memorandum of understanding” indicate that the proposed agreement leaves many difficult questions unanswered.
These questions include the long-term status of the Strait of Hormuz, the fate of Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to levels close to weapons-grade, and the details of potential sanctions relief.
Although this framework could prevent military escalation, it remains far from Trump’s previous demand for “unconditional surrender” and his pledge to dismantle Iran’s nuclear programme. Tehran, meanwhile, insists that its nuclear activities are solely for peaceful purposes.
Jason Brodsky, policy director at the nonprofit organization United Against Nuclear Iran, wrote on X: “If these terms are accurate and a deal is reached, it appears the Islamic Republic will gain more than the United States from this memorandum of understanding… A promise of more nuclear talks? Proceed with caution.”
Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported that the final wording of the agreement has not yet been completed. Trump has repeatedly claimed in the past that a deal was imminent, yet previous attempts failed to produce results.
This wave of diplomatic efforts unfolded against the backdrop of a new but limited exchange of strikes that nevertheless threatened the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran.
Analysts say Trump appears to be trying to balance pressuring Iran into making concessions on major issues while offering limited concessions himself so he can present the outcome as a victory.
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be welcomed internationally, but Trump would merely be restoring the free flow of maritime traffic that already existed before the war began.
Meanwhile, time is running out for the president, whose approval ratings have reached their lowest levels.
Midterm elections are scheduled for November, and fellow Republicans are struggling to maintain the party’s control of Congress. New assessments also warn of severe damage to the global economy if the conflict continues.
Iran appears to be seeking early sanctions relief to support its struggling economy, something Trump’s critics fear he may accept in pursuit of a deal to end the war.
During a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, Trump appeared to respond to his critics by reaffirming his hardline positions and insisting that he does not care about the midterm elections. Privately, however, his aides have expressed concern that rising gasoline prices could hurt Republican electoral prospects.
Analysts believe Iran has demonstrated confidence by proving its ability to withstand military attacks and deprive the world of one-fifth of global oil supplies.
John Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said: “The president is showing every sign of wanting to end this quickly… and that encourages the Iranians to hold firm to their position.”
The events of recent days are not new for a president who campaigned on promises to avoid unnecessary wars, only to later lead the United States into conflict without offering a convincing justification. Analysts believe that the way he ends this conflict will play a major role in shaping the legacy of his foreign policy during his second term.
