Repetition Rather Than Intensity… A New Russian Strategy to Exhaust Ukraine
Recent Russian attacks on the Ukrainian capital reveal a notable shift in Moscow’s approach, as it appears to be gradually moving away from intense and concentrated bombardments toward a strategy based on repeated attacks and prolonging their duration, with the aim of exhausting the population and wearing down Ukraine’s air defenses.
Kyiv recorded a record duration under air-raid alerts after spending 872 minutes, or nearly 15 hours, under warning of airstrikes in a single day, surpassing the previous record set in March 2022, according to Time War Zone.
According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, air-raid sirens sounded repeatedly throughout the day, while drones were launched in successive waves and small groups, keeping the capital under continuous tension and disrupting residents’ movement, work, public services, and transportation.
Analysts believe that the objective is not limited to causing material damage but also extends to exhausting the population’s psychological capacity to withstand the pressure by depriving civilians of periods of respite.
Irina Terik, chief executive of Fire Point, a company specializing in drone manufacturing, said the attacks were intended to drive Ukrainians toward despair by keeping them under constant pressure.
The Mila Tragedy… Weapons Stored Near Civilians Trigger Investigation
Amid this escalation, the village of Mila near Kyiv witnessed one of the deadliest incidents after a Russian drone strike on a warehouse killed at least 37 people and injured 15 others following massive secondary explosions.
The incident sparked the anger of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who described the storage of explosives near residential areas as “gross negligence and an unacceptable crime” and ordered a criminal investigation involving the prosecutor general, the Interior Ministry, and the security service.
Russia said the targeted site was a warehouse belonging to Fire Point and containing FP-1 and FP-2 drones, as well as another warehouse in the suburb of Chaiky containing long-range Flamingo missiles.
While Kyiv has not officially confirmed the presence of weapons at the second site, the Ministry of Defense called for a comprehensive review of weapons-storage facilities, stressing that the presence of explosive depots near civilian areas was unacceptable.
Stalemate on the Front Lines and a Deepening Mobilization Crisis
Along the front lines, Russian forces continue their offensive operations along several axes, but according to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War, they have made no confirmed territorial gains in Kharkiv, Donetsk, or Zaporizhzhia, while military activity in Kherson has remained limited.
Meanwhile, Kyiv is facing an increasing challenge in securing the manpower required to sustain the fighting. Kyrylo Budanov acknowledged that the country needs to mobilize at least 30,000 soldiers per month to maintain its positions, at a time when forced-recruitment practices are generating growing public discontent.
At the same time, both sides are racing to develop technological tools for warfare. Ukraine has established the Brave1 Dataroom platform to train artificial-intelligence systems using real combat data. It contains approximately five million labeled frames, with the aim of reducing response times from 15 to 20 minutes to mere seconds.
Kyiv has also intensified its attacks on Russian air bases and succeeded in destroying a Tu-95MS bomber at Engels Air Base, while Moscow is working to build shelters to protect its strategic aircraft. Thus, the war appears to be moving toward a new equation in which the outcome is determined not solely by the scale of the strike, but by the ability to sustain pressure and wear down the adversary day after day.
