Israeli Elections: Settler Violence Fuels Tensions in the West Bank as Army Warns of an Explosion
There is little to dispute the connection between the escalation of settler violence in the West Bank and the approach of the upcoming Israeli elections, scheduled for October.
The settlers, whose number exceeds 750,000 in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, constitute an important electoral base for the Israeli government, which is seeking to remain in power.
Settlers in particular vote for hard-right parties, foremost among them the Religious Zionism Party, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, whom opinion polls indicate is likely to lose the elections.
But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu needs this party to remain in the political arena, at least if it does not win the elections, in order to prevent the opposition from winning them and consequently triggering another election, thereby ensuring that he remains in power for a longer period following the repeat election.
This political equation is no secret. Ministers, including Netanyahu, say that the government formed at the end of 2022 approved the construction of 104 new settlements while facilitating the establishment of 160 agricultural outposts in the West Bank.
The ministers, led by Smotrich, warn that the formation of an alternative government would deprive settlers of this unprecedented settlement expansion on Palestinian land and would lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Yet the settlers, aware of the Israeli government’s dependence on them, are becoming increasingly emboldened in their attacks on Palestinian land and Palestinian civilians.
The figures speak for themselves. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OCHA) said it had recorded 1,540 attacks carried out by settlers against Palestinians and their property this year.
It said it had recorded an average of 203 attacks per month in 2026, compared with 153 attacks per month in 2025, 121 per month in 2024, and 108 per month in 2023.
The data indicate a clear rise in the number of attacks since the government took office at the end of 2022. OCHA recorded 71 attacks per month in 2022, 44 in 2021, 32 in 2020, and 31 in 2018.
Despite international criticism, the Israeli government is taking no action to put an end to settler violence.
The government issues muted criticism of settler violence but does not announce arrests or sanctions against settlers, raising questions about the seriousness of its commitment to stopping these attacks.
Avi Issacharoff, an analyst for the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, says: “This is the season of fires. Not because of the extreme heat, but because of attempts by far-right elements, on the eve of the Israeli elections, to ignite fires in the West Bank. It is no secret that the far right and its representatives in the Israeli government, whether in the Religious Zionism Party or among members of the Jewish Power party led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, are interested in dismantling the Palestinian Authority and imposing Israeli sovereignty over all the territories.”
He added: “Actions such as the vandalism of a memorial in the village of Madama, south of Nablus, by Tzvi Sukkot, chairman of the Israeli Knesset’s Education Committee and a religious Zionist, are aimed at achieving all these objectives at once: setting the area ablaze, provoking Palestinian acts of violence against Israelis that could lead to Israeli action against the Palestinian Authority, and ultimately strengthening Israeli support for Sukkot’s party, given its competition with the Jewish Power party. In other words, it is a situation that benefits Smotrich and his allies, but is far less beneficial to the State of Israel and to Israeli army soldiers, both active-duty and reservists.”
He continued: “Here, we cannot avoid addressing what is happening to the Israeli army in the occupied territories. It is not merely a matter of allowing hundreds of extremists to confront Israeli army soldiers from time to time; the Israeli army has itself become, willingly or unwillingly, a partner of these extremists.”
He added: “A defense minister who turns a blind eye to the far right at every opportunity, and a prime minister who remembered the need to ‘focus’ only on the eve of the elections, but who has done little to stop settler violence in the West Bank, at least until the elections.”
For his part, Matan Golan wrote in Haaretz: “Settlement outposts are repeatedly established in areas under the Palestinian Authority’s control, along transportation routes, on mountain peaks, or near new Palestinian construction. Contrary to the official claim that these outposts are established without authorization or coordination, it appears that this is not happening by chance and that the political leadership is aware of it.”
He added: “This is also evident from a conference held by the ‘Return to the Homeland’ Forum at the Knesset under the title ‘Taking Control of Open Areas.’ The conference called for the establishment of another 100 outposts in Areas ‘A’ and ‘B.’ Many Knesset members attended the conference, including Simcha Rothman, Tali Gottlieb, Yoav Kisch, Dan Illouz, Shlomo Karhi, Boaz Bismuth, Orit Strook, Tzvi Sukkot, and others.”
He quoted Tzvika Foghel, chairman of the National Security Committee, as telling members of the forum: “Wherever you go and wherever you need me, I will be with you, because this is the right way to take control of the territories under the Palestinian Authority: not through legislation or words, but through actions. Do not stop, and do not let anyone stop you.”
Israeli Army Warns
Last week, Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that areas of the West Bank could erupt, according to Yedioth Ahronoth.
On Sunday, the newspaper quoted Israeli officers as saying that “the situation in the West Bank is now on the brink of explosion.”
They added that “settlers are deliberately moving toward friction points deep inside Palestinian areas, with a focus on Areas ‘A’ and ‘B.’”
The newspaper Israel Hayom reported on Sunday, citing the Israeli army, that “events in the West Bank could deteriorate into a broad escalation.”
It added that “the army has been warning for nearly two weeks about the explosive potential of events in the West Bank and their impact on its military operations.”
It continued: “There are assessments within the army that the events in Qusra are not isolated, but rather part of a continuing series of incidents threatening to ignite the West Bank.”
The newspaper reported that “there is a growing impression within the army that certain elements within the Israeli government are interested in a broad escalation in the West Bank.”
