The Patriot gap and Russian missiles: the war in Iran weakens Ukraine’s defenses
Ukraine and its European allies are watching with deep concern the repercussions of the war in Iran on the flow of military aid, particularly shipments of Patriot missiles.
In recent years, Patriot interceptor missiles have formed a central pillar in protecting Ukrainian cities and infrastructure from barrages of Russian ballistic missiles.
A senior European diplomat summarized this anticipation in a brief statement to Foreign Policy: “Everything will depend on the situation surrounding Iran.”
Since April 2023, Washington has supplied Kyiv with Patriot missiles specifically intended to counter complex ballistic threats. In July 2025, this framework shifted to an indirect mechanism known as the “Ukrainian priority requirements list,” under which countries of the Organisation du traité de l’Atlantique Nord purchase American weapons that are then delivered to Ukraine.
However, this mechanism has never been sufficient. Kyiv has repeatedly complained of a chronic missile shortage. European estimates suggest Ukraine needs two thousand missiles per year, while it has received only around 600 over four years.
The war in Iran has intensified pressure on an already limited U.S. stockpile. The United States is reported to have depleted nearly half of its reserves, estimated at about 2,330 missiles, since last February.
This depletion is compounded by heavy demand for these missiles in other theaters, notably in a potential confrontation scenario with China in the Taiwan Strait. According to experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, cited by Foreign Policy, this places Washington in a “danger zone” of self-shortage.
The deeper dilemma is that increasing production is not a quick solution. Delivery times for the newest variant exceed 42 months, while annual U.S. production does not surpass 200 missiles.
Uncertainty is further heightened by contradictory signals from the administration of Donald Trump. While Washington affirms its commitment to delivering already paid-for missiles, the fate of future assistance remains unclear, especially after U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance described ending military aid to Ukraine as a “point of pride” for the administration. This stance translated into two brief suspensions of aid during 2025.
Observers also believe Trump could use the program as leverage over Kyiv.
Kyiv’s alternative options remain limited and delayed. A Ukrainian anti-ballistic missile is not expected to reach the battlefield before the end of 2027.
At the same time, the annual production capacity of the European SAMP/T system does not exceed 300 missiles, far below the threshold Kyiv considers necessary. Meanwhile, German-manufactured Patriot missiles, whose production began under a major contract, will be delivered gradually over three years and require U.S. export authorization due to international arms trade restrictions.
If the supply of Patriot missiles were to dry up, analysts believe Russia would likely escalate its ballistic attacks to exploit weakened defenses, with broader effects on power grids.
