Military escalation between Washington and Tehran derails hopes of a settlement

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Donald Trump says that the November midterm elections will not force him to sign a deal and that he is not concerned about the political consequences of a prolonged conflict with Iran.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked a U.S. air base on Thursday, after Washington carried out strikes targeting an Iranian drone operation near the Strait of Hormuz. The attack came hours after President Donald Trump denied a report claiming that a deal with Tehran was imminent. The renewed escalation weakens hopes for an agreement and has pushed oil prices higher once again.

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Recent military developments highlight the risks facing the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran, which came into effect in April. A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity to Reuters, said the military had shot down four Iranian attack drones and struck a ground control center in the coastal city of Bandar Abbas, which was preparing to launch a fifth drone.

He added: “These actions were deliberate and purely defensive, and aimed at maintaining the ceasefire.”

Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that the Revolutionary Guard said it had targeted a U.S. base in response to an early morning strike near Bandar Abbas airport. According to the Guard, the targeted base was the one from which the attack on the control center near Bandar Abbas had been launched. Kuwait, which hosts a major U.S. base, said it was responding to missile and drone attacks without specifying their origin.

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These developments follow comments made by Donald Trump on Wednesday, in which he said he was not concerned about the political consequences of a prolonged conflict with Iran, adding that Iranian leaders were mistaken if they believed the November midterm elections would force him to reach a deal.

During a cabinet meeting at the White House, he said of Iran’s leadership: “They thought they would outlast me… They said, ‘We’ll outlast him, he has midterm elections.’ I don’t care about midterm elections.”

Trump made these remarks during discussions on how to end the conflict. His apparent dismissal of electoral pressure has raised concerns among Republican allies already uneasy about earlier comments downplaying the war’s economic impact on Americans.

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The president had initially said the war would last four to six weeks, but it is now entering its fourth month. At times, he suggested it could end within days, while later indicating it might continue for some time.

With voters increasingly worried about rising prices, especially fuel costs, political pressure is mounting on the Republican Party, which may struggle to maintain control of the House and possibly the Senate.

During the cabinet meeting, Trump also referred to several construction projects in Washington, which some Republican lawmakers said were distracting from more urgent economic issues.

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A Reuters review of his public statements since January shows the president has increasingly mentioned the White House ballroom, the renovation of the Lincoln Reflecting Pool, and plans for a massive arch.

At the cabinet meeting attended by the media, Trump denied an Iranian state television report claiming he had received an informal draft agreement aimed at restoring commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within a month, with joint management by Iran and Oman.

Trump said no country would control the waterway and appeared to threaten Oman, a country with which the United States has had military and economic ties for decades. He said: “No one will control it… this is international water. Oman will behave like any other country, otherwise we will have to bomb it. They understand that.”

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The Iranian report said the framework deal would also lift the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports and withdraw American forces from areas near Iran. Ibrahim Azizi, head of Iran’s parliamentary national security committee, said Trump’s rhetoric would not force Tehran to back down from its demands on uranium enrichment, control of the strait, and sanctions relief.

He wrote on X: “It is clear that Trump, in an attempt to find a way out of this strategic impasse, is oscillating between threats and calls for a deal.”

The strait, through which a significant share of global oil and LNG shipments passed before the war, along with Iran’s nuclear program and existing sanctions, remains a key sticking point in talks aimed at ending the conflict.

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The waterway is governed by international law guaranteeing freedom of navigation.

The U.S. Treasury Department added the “Persian Gulf Strait Authority,” an Iranian body created to manage traffic through the strait, to its sanctions list targeting individuals and entities deemed a threat to U.S. national security.

Iranian state television said the draft agreement also envisaged the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region, but noted that the issue of their presence still required further discussion. The White House denied the report, calling it “completely fabricated,” while Tehran did not comment.

The report did not address Iran’s nuclear program, which Washington wants dismantled. Iranian sources said nuclear discussions would be part of a second round of talks, a move that may not be acceptable to some of Trump’s closest supporters. Tehran maintains that its nuclear program is purely peaceful.

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U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said during the cabinet meeting: “Bottom line, Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”

On the Lebanese front, Israel said air raid sirens sounded in northern Israel due to hostile aircraft activity. Oil prices rebounded following reports of escalating hostilities, after falling more than five percent on Wednesday. U.S. crude futures rose more than three percent, while stocks declined and the dollar strengthened.

The war has killed thousands and driven a sharp increase in global energy prices since it began on February 28 following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Trump has repeatedly said a deal was imminent.

• Activation of air defenses in Tehran

• Hardline American and Iranian positions dispel hopes for a near agreement

• Washington seeks to form an international coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz