Exploitation of Events in Yemen, Syria, and Africa: The Future of Al-Qaeda’s Arms in 2023

Terrorism has no religion or place. In recent years, terrorist organizations spread between Afghanistan and its neighboring countries, then spread to Arab countries such as Yemen and Syria with the Arab Spring. After Egypt fought and eliminated terrorism in the Sinai, terrorism was out of sight for years, especially with its weakening in Syria and Iraq.

Now, with the severe economic crisis, the war between Russia and Ukraine, countries’ interest in finding energy sources to meet their energy needs, and the Arab region’s countries preoccupied with resolving the crises facing their countries (Yemen, Syria, and Libya), terrorist organizations have returned to the scene with much greater vigor.

Attempts at domination

One of the most prominent organizations seeking to expand and spread, especially in 2023, is the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization, following the killing of Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri in a U.S. raid in Afghanistan, in early August 2022. At the present time, we are witnessing an increase in the activity of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, to expand and expand in Yemeni territory, during the last three months of 2022, and in early 2023, Al-Qaeda militants carried out a series of attacks targeting southern forces in several Yemeni provinces, especially those in southern Yemen, where the terrorist organization is based.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has found a fertile ground in Yemen, taking advantage of the situation and conflicts in the Arab country, which has been suffering from more than 9 years of war, especially after the failure of the UN truce between the Yemeni Presidential Command Council and the Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist militia.

While in Syria, the organization loyal to al-Qaeda and its leader Sami al-Oraydi was placed on the list of terrorists because of its threat to regional and international security. This revealed the presence of this organization and its influence inside Syrian territory, especially after it disassociated itself from Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham after it announced its disassociation from al-Qaeda. Therefore, the return of Hurras al-Din to Syrian territory will not stop, at least in the coming period; For now, al-Qaida is taking advantage of Washington’s preoccupation with fighting the Daesh terrorist group.

In other African countries, al-Qaeda’s branch in Somalia, al-Shabab al-Mujahideen in East Africa, has carried out a series of terrorist attacks since declaring its allegiance to the organization in 2009. The attacks targeted Somali security and military forces, especially after Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud came to power last May.

Also in Africa are the Sahel states, which have had the al-Qaeda-linked Ansar al-Islam and Muslims group since its inception in 2017. The group is made up of a number of terrorist militias and is scattered in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Last year, the terrorist group launched a series of attacks.

The Reality of Al-Qaeda’s Transition

Sameh Eid, a researcher specializing in Islamist groups, said al-Zawahiri’s leadership legacy cannot be ignored since al-Qaeda has increasingly passed from the unipolar leader of the global jihadist movement since he assumed leadership.

Despite the significant threat posed by some of the group’s affiliates abroad, he said, al-Qaeda has lost its two strongest branches in the heart of the Arab world under its leadership, ISIS and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, and is now weaker on the global stage.