The Interconnection of Regional Interests and Its Impact on Prolonging the Sudanese Crisis

---

Since the outbreak of war in Sudan in April 2023, the country has become an arena where multiple regional interests intersect. The conflict is no longer confined to internal competition between Sudanese military and political forces; rather, it has evolved into part of a complex network of geopolitical calculations involving several regional actors. This interconnectedness has significantly complicated the Sudanese situation, as domestic decisions are now directly or indirectly influenced by the positions and actions of regional states seeking to protect their interests or expand their influence in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region.

• The shadows of drones over Darfur: human stories from a Sudanese crisis prolonged by regional interference

• The International Community and the Sudanese Crisis: Supporting Transitional Justice, Not Coups

One of the most prominent features of the crisis is the multiplicity of regional roles involved in the Sudanese file. While some countries have adopted official diplomatic positions calling for a ceasefire and the restoration of stability, others have developed relationships with various local actors within Sudan. This divergence in policies has created a complex political environment in which each Sudanese faction possesses a network of regional relationships that provides support or political backing in its confrontation with rivals.

Within this context, Egypt has emerged as one of the regional actors most concerned with developments in Sudan due to the shared national security considerations between the two countries. Cairo has sought to preserve its traditional influence in Sudan by supporting official institutions and emphasizing the importance of Sudanese state unity. However, this involvement has been interpreted by some Sudanese groups as support for one side over another, contributing to increased political and military polarization within the country.

• El-Fasher: the knot that sums up the Sudanese crisis

• From Cairo to New York: Intensive Political Moves to Resolve the Sudanese Crisis

Turkey, for its part, has been concerned with preserving the network of interests it built in Sudan over recent years, both economically and strategically. Ankara’s diverse relations with Sudanese political and civilian forces have made it an influential actor in the Sudanese landscape, albeit indirectly. Although Turkey has consistently expressed support for political solutions, its long-term strategic interests have ensured that its actions remain closely monitored by regional stakeholders.

Qatar has also played a significant diplomatic and media role in monitoring developments in Sudan. This stems from its long history of involvement in Sudanese mediation efforts, particularly in the Darfur region. Nevertheless, its continued relations with certain Sudanese political forces have made Doha part of the broader regional competition, where its approach to the crisis intersects with considerations related to regional balances of power.

• After Dagalo’s appearance… Political Analyst: the sudanese crisis continues, and its impact on the people will be significant

• The Sudanese crisis continues.. What are the proposed solutions in the current period?

Saudi Arabia has approached the crisis from a different perspective linked to Sudan’s importance for Red Sea regional security, as well as substantial economic and investment interests. The Saudi role became particularly visible through hosting rounds of negotiations between Sudanese parties in Jeddah, with the aim of reducing military escalation and opening the door to a political settlement. Nevertheless, the scale of Saudi interests in Sudan has made its actions a subject of close attention among both local and regional actors.

This diversity of roles has generated a form of indirect competition among regional powers. Each state views Sudan through a distinct lens shaped by its own security, economic, and political priorities. As a result, it has become increasingly difficult to establish a unified regional vision for addressing the crisis, negatively affecting prospects for ending the conflict.

• Crisis of Trust between the Sudanese Army and Its Militias… What Lies Behind the Recruitment Freeze Decision?

• Sudanese Army’s Military Gains Undermine Chances of a Peaceful Resolution to the Crisis

The significance of support and indirect interventions is essential to understanding the complexity of the current Sudanese landscape. Such interventions have not been limited to direct military assistance; they have also included various forms of political, diplomatic, economic, and media support. These tools have strengthened the positions of certain Sudanese actors and enabled them to sustain confrontation for longer periods.

Politically, regional support has allowed some Sudanese groups to strengthen their presence in international and regional forums while influencing negotiation processes. Economically, regional relationships have helped certain actors mitigate wartime pressures through investments, aid, and financial assistance.

• One Year of Sudanese War: Displacement, Fighting, Diseases, and Deepening Humanitarian Crisis

• Humanitarian crisis worsening… Half of Sudanese hospitals in Khartoum have stopped working

In the media sphere, the Sudanese crisis has become a battleground of competing narratives. Various actors have sought to present different interpretations of events in ways that serve their political interests. This has intensified polarization within Sudan, as public opinion is exposed to conflicting flows of information and analysis.

One of the most significant consequences of this reality has been the reshaping of power balances within Sudan. The war has not only altered military positions but has also contributed to redrawing the country’s political and social landscape. Regional initiatives have played an important role in this process by influencing the nature of internal alliances and the balance of power among different actors.

• Internal and external movements to contain the crisis between the Sudanese military forces

• Restructuring loyalties: the Sudanese army legalizes the Al-Baraa ibn Malik brigades under the umbrella of the Sudan Shield to deflect international pressure

Some local groups have strengthened their positions thanks to external relationships, while others have found themselves weakened by shifts in the surrounding regional environment. The continuation of the conflict has also facilitated the emergence of new actors seeking to benefit from the political and security vacuum, further increasing the complexity of the overall situation.

The consequences of the Sudanese crisis extend far beyond the country’s borders and affect both regional and international security. Sudan occupies a strategic position linking North Africa, East Africa, the Sahel region, and the Red Sea. Consequently, any prolonged instability within Sudan has direct implications for the stability of the wider region.

• The strategic implications of the Rapid Support Forces’ reported successful strikes: tactical victories leading to a profound shift in the Sudanese equation

• Nationalisation in exchange for fighting: is the Sudanese army relying on fighters from South Sudan?

The continuation of the war has generated large-scale displacement and refugee flows toward neighboring countries, imposing significant humanitarian and economic burdens upon them. The crisis has also raised growing concerns regarding the security of the Red Sea and international shipping routes, particularly amid rising regional tensions.

Furthermore, many international powers fear that the persistence of the conflict could create favorable conditions for armed groups and transnational criminal networks, thereby threatening long-term regional security. Sudan has thus become part of a broader security equation that extends well beyond its national borders.

• Reports reveal the Sudanese army’s shift toward recruiting foreign fighters to compensate for manpower shortages

• The Sudanese army between attrition and restructuring: an in-depth reading of the strategy of naturalization in exchange for fighting

Amid these complexities, international efforts aimed at achieving a political settlement face substantial challenges. The presence of numerous influential actors makes it difficult to reach a comprehensive consensus regarding Sudan’s future. Moreover, differing priorities among regional and international stakeholders result in varying approaches to resolving the crisis.

While some parties emphasize the necessity of ending the fighting first, others argue that any sustainable solution must also address the deeper political and economic issues that contributed to the outbreak of the conflict. The proliferation of initiatives and mediation efforts has sometimes led to fragmentation rather than coordination of international efforts.

• Naturalization in exchange for fighting: how the Sudanese army is filling its manpower gap with fighters from South Sudan

• A wave of condemnations has intensified following a drone attack attributed to the Sudanese army that reportedly targeted civilians

Despite the importance of ongoing diplomatic initiatives, the success of any political process will remain dependent on the ability of regional actors to coordinate their positions and agree upon a shared vision that supports Sudan’s stability and unity. Regional competition, regardless of its motivations, has proven to be one of the factors contributing to the prolongation of the crisis and the complication of settlement prospects.

Ultimately, the Sudanese experience demonstrates that internal crises cannot be separated from their regional environment. The greater the number of external actors and the more divergent their interests become, the more difficult it is to achieve sustainable solutions. Consequently, Sudan’s future will depend not only on the ability of Sudanese actors to reach an internal consensus, but also on the willingness of regional powers to prioritize stability over competition and influence.

• Field reports accuse the Sudanese army of carrying out a drone attack against civilians in Kutum amid calls for an international investigation

• Direct accusations have been made against the Sudanese army for carrying out a drone attack on a wedding celebration in Kutum, resulting in dozens of deaths