Trump-Xi Summit: Iran in Exchange for Taiwan?
All eyes are turning to the White House summit between the two leaders, amid speculation that Beijing may seek to propose an informal geopolitical trade-off: using its influence to help restore stability in the Middle East and assist Washington on the Iranian issue in exchange for the suspension or reduction of US arms sales to the self-governing island of Taiwan.
Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in Washington on Thursday with an agenda extending far beyond trade. Attention is increasingly focused on the possibility that the war in the Middle East and arms sales to Taiwan could be used as leverage in highly sensitive negotiations with US President Donald Trump.
Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet at the White House as the two powers seek to preserve a fragile trade truce that is due to expire in November.
According to sources familiar with the discussions cited by Reuters, Xi is expected to press Trump to halt US arms sales to Taiwan. The Chinese president may invoke the 1982 US-China Joint Communiqué, in which Washington pledged to reduce its arms sales to the island.
In return, Beijing could offer to cooperate with Washington in pressuring Iran and helping to bring the war in the Middle East to an end.
This possibility raises a highly sensitive geopolitical question: could Iran become a Chinese bargaining chip in exchange for a reduced US commitment to Taiwan?
Trump also holds a powerful bargaining tool: an arms package for Taiwan worth approximately $14 billion, in addition to an $11 billion deal previously approved by his administration.
The US president had described the $14 billion package as “negotiating leverage” with China. It was temporarily suspended in May or June amid his talks with Xi.
The war involving Iran has given the issue additional significance.
US military operations have depleted stocks of ammunition and missile defense systems, leaving Washington with a need to replenish some of its reserves.
US reports have estimated the cost of the war at tens of billions of dollars, while warning that rebuilding certain stockpiles could take years.
The issue was already discussed at the previous Trump-Xi summit. The Guardian reported that Trump wanted Beijing to pressure Tehran into advancing peace negotiations and reopening the strait.
The Taiwan issue, however, is considerably more complex.
The 1982 communiqué cited by Beijing did not contain an unconditional US commitment to end arms sales to Taiwan. Washington also linked the gradual reduction of such sales to China’s continued pursuit of a peaceful resolution to its dispute with the island.
Nevertheless, Beijing is seeking to use the document as a basis for increasing pressure on Trump.
The current summit follows a year and a half of trade conflict that began in February 2025, when Trump imposed an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Beijing responded with tariffs on US coal, gas, oil and automobiles, as well as restrictions on certain minerals.
The dispute reached its peak in April, when Trump imposed tariffs of up to 145% on some Chinese imports. Beijing retaliated with duties of up to 125% and tightened its restrictions on rare-earth minerals.
In May or June, the two sides reached a truce in Geneva that reduced US tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US products to 10%. The truce was subsequently extended.
In October, Trump and Xi reached a new understanding under which the United States reduced tariffs in exchange for Chinese measures related to fentanyl, the resumption of US soybean purchases and the suspension of certain restrictions on rare-earth minerals.
In May or June 2026, Trump traveled to Beijing and met Xi again. The two sides announced plans to expand trade and investment, while China pledged to purchase Boeing aircraft and US agricultural products.
The trade truce nevertheless remains temporary. In July, Washington imposed new tariffs of 12.5% on imports from dozens of trading partners, including China.
