Israel Sets Timeline That Could Open the Door to Renewed War, with an Expected Announcement on Hamas
Israel expects new developments regarding the Gaza file over the coming months, with assessments indicating that an upcoming decision could pave the way for a resumption of fighting in the Gaza Strip.
According to a report broadcast by the Israeli Channel 12 program “Friday Studio,” Israeli officials believe that within the next two to three months, the Peace Council may formally declare that Hamas is violating the agreement.
According to the report, such a declaration would also allow Israel to operate in areas currently under Hamas control, potentially leading to the resumption of military operations in the Gaza Strip.
The report noted that these developments come one thousand days after the events of October 7 and amid political preparations for the elections scheduled for October. It added that the Gaza issue, the next phase of the agreement, and the future of military operations may return to the forefront of the public agenda even before the elections.
Israeli Assessments
The report stated that these assessments are based on Israel’s belief that Hamas, despite the heavy losses it sustained during the war and the reduction of the territory under its control, continues to maintain authority over certain parts of the Gaza Strip while strengthening its military capabilities and rebuilding its arsenal.
It added that Israel believes voluntary disarmament is not a realistic option and that if Hamas does not dismantle its weapons stockpiles, Israel will eventually have to do so itself.
Mladenov and the Mediators
The report quoted a political official as saying that Nikolay Mladenov, Director General of the Peace Council and the official responsible for overseeing implementation of the agreement, had already considered declaring Hamas in violation of the agreement two months ago.
The official said: “Mladenov was planning to declare Hamas in breach of the agreement two months ago, but he suspended the move at the request of the mediators, giving them additional time to persuade Hamas to comply with the agreement.”
He added that if Hamas’s behavior does not change in the coming weeks, the decision could be taken as early as September.
He continued: “Our discussions with them indicate that if nothing changes over the next two or three months, meaning by September, Mladenov will declare Hamas to be in violation of the agreement.”
Broader Freedom of Action
According to the report, a declaration by the Peace Council that Hamas is violating the agreement could significantly alter Israel’s operational freedom inside the Gaza Strip.
Israeli assessments suggest that Israel would then be able to operate without the restrictions currently imposed on it, including in areas still controlled by Hamas.
The report added that, in practical terms, if Hamas is officially declared in breach of the agreement and refuses to disarm, Israel could resume large-scale military operations throughout the Gaza Strip.
An Alternative Reconstruction Plan
Meanwhile, Israeli media reported that the U.S. administration has decided to move forward with a temporary reconstruction plan for the Gaza Strip despite failing to reach an agreement with Hamas on disarmament after months of negotiations.
According to Yedioth Ahronoth, the temporary reconstruction effort will be limited to areas under Israeli control, representing approximately 60 percent of the Gaza Strip, while the remaining 40 percent, still controlled by Hamas, will not be included.
The newspaper reported that the plan envisions a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from areas where residents will be relocated, in exchange for the deployment of an International Stabilization Force alongside a newly established Palestinian police force trained in Egypt. Administration of these areas would be entrusted to the National Gaza Administration Committee.
The report also stated that the U.S. administration has shifted from indirect negotiations with Hamas through mediators to direct talks in an effort to reach a partial disarmament formula involving the dismantling of heavy weapons while allowing Hamas to retain light weapons. However, the negotiations have not yet produced a mutually agreed definition of what constitutes heavy weaponry.
Israeli Channel 15 further reported that meetings of the Peace Council held in Cyprus focused on implementation timelines, security arrangements, and plans to relocate residents to the so-called “Zero Zone.” Participants reportedly agreed to proceed with the plan even if Hamas does not disarm in the near future.
According to the channel, infrastructure preparations are expected to be completed within three to six months, after which the first groups of residents will be relocated to the Tal al-Sultan area in southern Gaza. Temporary housing, schools, healthcare facilities, and workplaces will be established there, while the Israeli military will continue providing external security for those areas.
The report concluded that Hamas’s continued refusal to disarm leaves several key issues unresolved, including the future of territories still under its control. This aligns with Israeli assessments suggesting that the movement could eventually be declared in violation of the agreement, a development that could lead to an expansion of Israeli military operations throughout the Gaza Strip.
