The Single Candidate Battle: Division Within Macron’s Camp Boosts Le Pen’s Chances of Reaching the Élysée
France’s centrist camp is facing a decisive test ahead of the 2027 presidential election, as tensions mount between its two leading candidates, Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal, giving both the far right and the left a greater opportunity to make it to the Élysée.
Senior representatives of the rival presidential candidates from France’s centrist camp are meeting for lunch on Wednesday, hoping to determine which candidate would be best placed to challenge Marine Le Pen in the race for the Élysée, scheduled for spring 2027 to elect a new president to succeed Emmanuel Macron.
However, reaching a compromise that could save the centrist camp from defeat at the hands of the far right and far left does not currently appear to be on the table, according to the U.S. magazine Politico.
Politico noted growing concern among supporters of Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe, both former prime ministers under Macron and rivals competing for the same electoral base, that their internal conflict could drag on to the point of damaging the centrist camp’s chances.
They fear that the absence of a strong centrist candidate could turn the election into a confrontation between two figures opposed to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union, and capable of alarming financial markets: Marine Le Pen on the far right and Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the radical left.
The presidential election proceeds to a runoff if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote. Given her polling numbers, Le Pen appears almost certain to secure one of the two places in the second round, while the strong start to Mélenchon’s campaign could allow him to overtake Philippe and secure a place in the runoff.
Despite pressure to find a genuine challenger to Le Pen, the rival figures within the centrist camp do not appear to be in any hurry to settle their differences. In recent days, Attal, who trails Philippe in the polls, has sought to portray his centrist rival as being out of touch with reality.
In response to these remarks, Philippe said that candidates who share the same centrist political ground should direct their attacks at far-right forces.
Franck Riester, Attal’s campaign manager, told a small group of journalists on Tuesday that he did not expect a decisive decision to be reached before next February. Philippe likewise said in an interview on Tuesday that he did not believe a single candidate would emerge before next year.
Riester therefore sees Wednesday’s scheduled lunch, the latest in a series of regular consultations among members of the centrist camp, as an opportunity to “air grievances.”
“We will continue discussing the campaign and ways to avoid inflicting irreparable damage on one another, and to agree on a code of conduct,” Riester added.
Attal and his advisers began organizing these meetings in the spring, after Philippe launched his campaign and before Attal announced his candidacy, in an effort to ensure that the centrist bloc remained united. However, the meetings have been marked by disagreements over how to rally behind a single candidate.
A lawmaker from Philippe’s party echoed this view, saying that the meeting would produce no breakthrough. “We are going because we have a sense of propriety, but we have never believed in the usefulness of these meetings,” said the lawmaker, who requested anonymity.
Opinion polls indicate that Philippe is among the candidates best positioned to mount a serious challenge to Le Pen. However, the large number of presidential hopefuls within the centrist camp allows candidates opposed to the traditional political establishment to dominate the public debate on a range of issues, from banning the hijab to writing off substantial portions of France’s debt.
According to a former centrist minister, the “internal competition” between Philippe and Attal, who are ideologically the closest to each other, could ultimately destroy the centrist bloc, which is already facing extremely difficult challenges amid voters’ dissatisfaction with Macron’s presidency. He added: “The danger is that the winner ends up governing amid political ruins.”
Given the growing difficulties in reaching an agreement with Attal’s camp, some of Philippe’s supporters hope to form an alliance with the conservative Republicans party, which once dominated the political scene and of which Philippe was once a member.
The party’s candidate, Bruno Retailleau, trails both Attal and Philippe in the polls. However, an alliance also appears to be a distant prospect, as Retailleau said last week that he would continue his campaign “until victory,” and he was not invited to the lunch.
