Spain’s election could revive Catalan independence tensions as the right eyes a return to power
The question of Catalan independence could return to the forefront of Spanish politics ahead of elections scheduled for 29 November. The prospect of the conservative People’s Party and the far-right Vox taking power has raised concerns that separatist sentiment could regain momentum after years of decline following the 2017–2018 crisis.
According to a report by Politico, Catalan independence, which triggered a severe constitutional crisis in Spain almost a decade ago, has largely slipped out of the political and media spotlight. It could quickly return, however, if the two right-wing parties form the next government, as opinion polls suggest they may.
Concerns centre on the parties’ hard-line positions on Spain’s territorial unity and the possibility of curtailing Catalonia’s powers of self-government. Home to around eight million people, Catalonia is Spain’s second-most-populous autonomous community after Andalusia. It accounts for approximately 19 per cent of the country’s economy and 16.5 per cent of its population.
Francesc-Marc Álvaro, a Senate candidate for the pro-independence Republican Left of Catalonia, said the People’s Party and Vox would seek to reduce the region’s devolved powers and intervene extensively in Catalan society. He warned that such measures could inflame tensions.
Míriam Nogueras, an MP for the separatist Together for Catalonia party, said the region had not been respected under any Spanish regime or government. She added that the independence movement would regain momentum and strength if the next government continued to treat Catalonia in the same way.
An independence movement pushed down the agenda
Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez took office shortly after the failed independence bid of 2017, which prompted several nationalist politicians to leave the country, while nine others were imprisoned.
Unlike the People’s Party’s hard-line approach towards Catalonia, Sánchez chose to negotiate with pro-independence parties and offer concessions in exchange for their parliamentary support. An amnesty law covering Catalans involved in the secession attempt helped ease tensions in the region, although it provoked anger on the Spanish right.
Unity among separatist parties, a crucial force behind the independence campaign almost a decade ago, has nevertheless eroded and fractured. The issue has also fallen down voters’ list of priorities, overtaken by housing, immigration and crime.
Even so, 43 per cent of Catalonia’s residents still support independence, according to the regional government’s statistical institute. Former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont, who led the 2017 secession attempt, acknowledged that, nine years later, the movement had become “fragmented and weak”.
The central question, the report argues, is whether the hard-line positions of the People’s Party and Vox could reunite the separatist camp and give it fresh momentum.
Fears of reduced regional powers
People’s Party leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo accused Sánchez’s government of beginning to dismantle Spain’s 1978 constitutional order through its engagement with Catalan nationalists and the concessions granted to them.
Vox, whose political rise was fuelled by fierce opposition to Catalan separatism, has called for pro-independence parties to be banned. It also supports dismantling Spain’s decentralised system of government, arguing that it wastes resources and encourages regional nationalism.
Nevertheless, Feijóo told the newspaper La Vanguardia that Catalonia had nothing to fear from him. He also referred to the failure to deliver public works projects budgeted for the region, a longstanding grievance among Catalan nationalists.
Concerns include possible restrictions on the use of regional languages, including Catalan, Basque, Valencian and Galician, during debates in Spain’s parliament. Oriol Bartomeus, director of Barcelona’s Institute of Political and Social Sciences, said separatists could interpret such a move as a declaration of confrontation.
Álvaro also expects a government led by the People’s Party and Vox to oppose the Catalan-language immersion model in the region’s schools. He raised the possibility of reduced funding for the Catalan government and cuts to its powers in areas such as policing.
The report notes that the parties’ experience of governing together in the Valencian Community and the Balearic Islands offers indications of the policies they could pursue nationally. In those regions, they adopted measures aimed at limiting the use of local languages, described as varieties of Catalan.
Against this backdrop, Bartomeus said the Catalan question remained politically relevant and available for use in political disputes. He suggested that the People’s Party could harden its stance on territorial issues if the next government failed to deliver results in other areas, such as the economy.
The report warns that a tougher approach to national unity by Spain’s next government could give the separatist movement fresh reasons to mobilise, following years in which its strength has diminished and independence has slipped down voters’ list of priorities.
